Friday, November 10, 2006

A couple of small matters that were brewing while we were all preoccupied with the elections here in America ... let's start with Iran, okay?


Ali Larijani, Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator


During most of this month -- and it's only ten days old -- Russia has been trying to take out some key provisions included in the UN sanctions against Iran. And as of this afternoon, there were at least four and maybe five draft resolutions floating around with major differences from the draft resolution that I thought was "put to bed" with Russia's concurrence (or so I thought) a couple of days before our Midterm Elections.

I'd link you to the "latest" if I could identify which one was which at this stage. Be assured, I am working on that. Probably, this link to a compilation published a week ago will help.

But the Russian objections -- not to mention China's and, oh yes, Iran's -- are worth looking at. For that matter, the whole matter of sanctions against a country whose nuclear program has not been shown to be a "weapons program" is worth considering a lot closer now that "realists" are guiding Mr. Bush in his foreign policy.

The very fact that someone other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (still a worrisome and dangerous screwball) is sitting down and discussing the serious rationality of the whole issue with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), should make all of the Western nations -- who are essentially trying to ward off a precipitous Israeli attack IMHO -- take serious note and maybe question the rationality of sanctions at this time themselves -- in particular, the US with half of its active military engaged next door to Iraq.

We threw sanctions on Iraq back in 1991 or so and backed them up with "no fly zones," UN inspections and harassment that didn't even permit Saddam Hussein to fly out of Baghdad ... and what did all of that buy us? Along came George Bush and invasion plans began to be thrown together in the Pentagon (long before 9/11, BTW) and those very restrictive sanctions are biting us in the ass right now as we are slowly learning that they didn't exactly win over the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people ... not to mention our bungled occupation since the invasion.

No, I believe that we're going to have to sit down and talk over the Iranian desire to have a nuclear program that includes (yes!) some level of enrichment of uranium and even think of coming up with a time-staged compromise that will have at least the UN Security Council in step with whatever is proposed for signature in 2007. Yes, I would want to carefully word any mention of the heavy water reactor at Arak. One of the more interesting by-products of heavy water reactors is ... uhh ... Plutonium.

But even the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (which Iran signed!) allows for that!

I'm not suggesting that we bend over and say "kick me!" ... only suggesting that during our preoccupation with politics, we have let Mr. Bolton and the neocons write a draft that, if signed, would put Iran in a tight corner. We can be tough and fair at the same time, can't we?

In the meantime, weren't Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's words today just a little familiar? He said something about our not being able "to do a damn thing on the nuclear issue" which reminds me of some things that the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini said after our embassy staff was taken hostage back in 1979. Hmmm ... almost the same crazy words.

And the chants in the streets in Tehran sound familiar too, don't they? Have you heard "Death to America!" before?

I'm only suggesting that Americans put the elections behind us and begin to watch how the White House is dealing with the various aspects of a much larger problem.

5 Comments:

At 5:16 AM, Blogger Oxiane said...

Joe,

the sanctions on iran will be better for the government and our politics . you know it.
in the same time not doing anything is a terrible mistake since they are just waiting be powerful enough to make a hell. and i said you already about the leader and the president how crazy they are.

about the manifestations "death to america". when i was there i could see many already in tehran and esfahan .. i mean panels. it's like a tradition, a respect towards the words of khomeiny: it's exactly the reason why the president speaks so hardly about israel: he has to follow the step of the old leader, the creator of the islamic republic. it 's very funny to see nobody cares about it in iran. many times people say me "israel? why israel?" to let me know it was so disconnected to any reality in iranian mind.

for usa, i just give you my simple advice. it should work on their image. still be there in minds of people as freedom, model for the world. what is good is at least for universities you attract the best of student... hopefully china is not as well taking this to you. yesterday was a program on our channels about the so many rich chinese when the poor have still the same conditions of life. i learned at school you know about "democracy" (other meaning than original mearning) is the rate of middle class. the one in france decreases. the one in usa is big like all the countries where people want to live. almostnothing in china and russia and .. iran.
still i think the problem of iran is less the governement stupid words than the consequences for the iranians: living very hardly except few of them... chinese model let's say ;)

cheers
fred

 
At 11:24 AM, Blogger Dr. Joe said...

sage -

Yey, teaching. My moderate skills will be passed on to yet another generation of (possibly misguided) thinkers ... actually "offenders" in a penal institution whom the state provides university/college educations if they do the work.

Long hours twice a week and normal hours twice a week ... to add to 40, of course. Starts on Monday, so my blogs will be fwere and further between.

Cheers
MWN (Joe)

 
At 11:29 AM, Blogger Dr. Joe said...

le rouge et le noir -

"proper" sanctions make sense, but not sanctions designed to elicit a response from nuts like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

We have to allow the minimum of uranium enrichment to give Iran some independence from Russia, their only supplier that I know of.

The main thing is that the two governments (us and them) sit down and talk ... soon.

I agree with 73.20184% of what you wrote.

Cheers

MWN (Joe)

 
At 5:03 PM, Blogger rubarzan said...

What the Iraniens are looking for is to achieve the A-Bombe and then no one dares tell them anything about human rights and democracy. That they can then do anything they wish to inside Iran. Are you suggesting that we sacrify 60 million people( Population of Iran) so as to save a possible, just a possible war outbreak with the mollahs in Iran?
Allowing a minimum of uranium enrichment? That's what they want today. Once they get it, they will ask for more and we'll be in the same sitution as we are today. You just don't know the Ayatollahs. You really don't know them.

 
At 6:28 AM, Blogger Dr. Joe said...

Rubarzan -

But I do, and that's why we ought to sit down and come up with an Iranian enrichemnt program that we can monitor and that falls short of what is needed to produce weapons -- e.g., the heavy water reactor - already being developed!

Cheers

MWN

 

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