An "October Surprise" directed at Iran is not entirely out of the picture ...
Let me put on my military analyst cap for a short time. Indulge me.
Common sense and conventional wisdom suggest that the Dwight D. Eisenhower and its task force will simply begin its "conventional" deployment in the Gulf waters and provide continuity as the Enterprise and her task force heads back to Norfolk and the (now more than 300,000,000) eager Americans cheering on the docks and in homes across America.
Right?
After all, the crews with the Enterprise and its entourage are tired and eager to get home and besides, a lot more is needed for a meaningful attack (boots on the ground/sand) than what would be available for what is scheduled to be a short time of relief overlap. Also, it would look like political grandstanding to even do a reconnaissance fly-over just ahead of the November elections.
Right?
Right! ... Except, now I've read too much of Bush on the Couch to believe that Bush would think along those lines. He's angry as hell at just about everybody these days ... gay Republicans for coming out of the closet ... Democrats for gleefully watching poll numbers suggesting a tsunami effect from the Foley Affair ... his White House staff for agreeing to his partial surrender re. the status of "enemy combatants" ... the Sunni and Shiite Iraqis for killing each other in even greater numbers of late ... and our own soldiers for being in the middle of the fray ... countless generals and admirals telling him he's wrong ... His father for shoving JameS Baker III in front of his nose ... Condi for being out and about the world seemingly ignoring him most of this month ... and maybe worst of all, whispers inside the Beltway after the compromises he made to the Senate (re. the Torture Bill signed today) that he's lost his nerve ... the list is endless!
Even Kim Jong Il ignores him!
And ... the marbles are starting to fall into various holes ... he could do quite a bit, couldn't he, with nearly zero preparation beyond what has already been done in contingency planning (always ongoing) and propositioning of specific assets.
How many nuclear sites did the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say there were? The number "eighteen" rings a bell in Mr. Bush's mind. And just how do you spell "bunker buster"? And with two carrier groups on station for even just a relatively short time, how long do you suppose it would take to annihilate the Iranian navy to prevent a blockage of the Hormuz Straits?
Now mind you, I'm just musing ...
Nah, I don't really think our President is that devious ... but if a "Gulf of Tonkin" kind of event were to occur ... or any one of a dozen "false flag" scenarios was to unfold (inasmuch as Iran, like Iraq, was not involved in 9/11, that might be necessary, right?) Hmmm ... you know? I do believe we could set back Iran's nuclear weapons development by a few years at the very least. [And that is a fact!]
And remember we have strategic bombers that can fly from near anywhere to near anywhere without having to refuel on the ground. Maybe that ten billion dollars that the Pentagon claims was "lost" in bookkeeping by its contractors ... wasn't lost at all ... How do you spell "Global Strike"?
Totally insane, I know ... but ...
You have to admit, the run on American flags at WalMart stores countrywide would have the seamstresses in China busy for a decade!
And I'd have to put out a new and revised Guru Mediawingnuts election results prediction a week before the midterm elections.
posted by Dr. Joe @ 10:16 PM
4 comments
4 Comments:
nice article.
even some words were hard to understand below the picture as the french people don't have the same "word games" let's say expressions.
you're talentuous. you should write in a newspaper. so seems Bush is living a lot of hell.
about the torture you exagerate a little bit, no? even during war torture is forbidden and it's very fair that your country is respecting it. But using hard methods, yes it is not christian attitude, but how can you protect usa against people who live in expectative to destroy usa?
sadly some country are so powerful that even usa can just be patient and hope their own people be more powerful to kick out the dictators: russia, china, corea, iran. my advice is that russia is far the most dangerous country nowadays. It already took too much power on Europe, which is very dependant. so the power of usa is lost. In europe, in many countries.
for me usa is a model. not these countries. it is so obvious. even in countries where you learn to hate the americans you still see the people so pro americans.The most beautiful exemple is Iran.
As you're speaking about it today. Let's speak about this exemple. IS a war necessary? is enough to bomb the sites (which is dangerous and as well not efficient)? can usa hope and can usa help to make it better country? why khatami was ignored by Bush when he tried hardly to change its country? is that enough this last point to help this guy when you know that the real power is in hands of khameiny the spiritual leader ? nobody knows even the iranians. some people in usa royalists just don't care about iranians and don't understand anymore what they want. they can't help. the same people buying so many houses that the iranians themselves can't hardly get anything. every iranian wants leave. almost all student from the most famous school are leaving the country to... usa. do they care about iran after it? most of them not at all. what makes my wife really cry of shame.
maybe it needs time. iran itself be tired of all students leaving. little by little in peaceful relations, people build , work together. and then usa will stop to loose so many good points (because of Bush and the war) in the minds of people. but if usa let france, russia , china to propagate their ideas of terror? is someone wants to come study in france? in russia? in china? no i was hoping go to berkeley (problem of money didn't let me do so)... please keep be the light for intelligence, freedom. we need usa.
so on friday i leave to iran. a wonderful country except some people of course. but my wife parents are angels :)
take good care ... hopefully i still be able to read you but it's filterized there.
frederic
Wait a minute. Aren't the Iraqis that support our occupation of Iraq the same ones that support Iran? How would this surprise work?
Richard -
Neither the Sunnis (because they are now "ruled" by Shiites) nor the Shiites (who now have exactly what they want and don't need us anymore to unseat Saddam) want us in Iraq. They see the likelihood of a Shiite Crescent encircling the Saudi oil fields as easily as the Saudis see it -- and as I saw it while "political advisor" to the Royal Saudi Air Force.
Now ... you know why George H. W. Bush didn't follow Saddam back to Baghdad and topple him and his "Republican (ironic name for his security forces, eh?) Guard."
Cheers
Bro Joe
le rouge et le noir (Fred) -
Yes, be careful while you're in Iran and stay out of the nuclear weapons laboratories and missile sites -- at least for the next couple of years or so.
And have a good time with your wife's relatives. I've always found Iranian hospitality to be tops.
Cheers
Joe
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