Guru Mediawingnuts' October Prediction ... assuming no "October Surprises"

Guru Mediawingnuts ... Taken in Early 2006

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My current (October) predictions for the 2006 Midterm Elections:

The Democrats will pick up fewer seats in the House of Representatives than I thought they would last month. They should still pick up a double-digit number of seats making the makeup of the House as of 2007:

Democrats: 219
Republicans: 215
Independents: 1

The Senate is (as always) tougher for the Democrats to make headway, but The Republicans will find a way to allow the Democrats to at least catch up (more or less)! You heard Swami Mediawingnuts correctly; the Democrats will still manage to pick up four or five of the 33 seats being contested and the new makeup of the Senate in January of 2007 will be:

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 49
Independents: 2 [Lieberman wins, dang it! And Sanders (Vermont) would probably vote with the Democrats most of the time.]

Obviously, with that makeup, an impeachment by the House in late 2007 is nigh impossible; however, if hearings are held (marginally possible -- probability = 0.001) and GWB or Dick C. are actually impeached (very unlikely), the Senate will find neither man "guilty" on even one of the several counts of Impeachment -- my current prediction, given an impeachment by the House, is that as many as three (down from last month's five) counts would be included. Thus, even if not removed from office, Bush could conceivably serve the last year of his term in the same manner as Clinton served out his final years in the Presidency ... that is, as an "impeached" man. (That would be a nice compromise, I think.)

I still believe that the reason that the Democrats would prefer that Cheney remain the Vice President is because the Democrats still fear running against Condoleezza Rice in the Presidential 2008 race. Of course, Cheney (with help from other Republicans) may still find a way not to finish out his term, so be on the watch for a Condi-Hillary race in 2008.

Guru Mediawingnuts has spoken!

And as for the "October Surprise": I stick by what I predicted in September. Watch for Mr. Bush to put naval forces (the Eisenhower Group, but hardly enough to support an attack) in position in the Persian Gulf to threaten (but not attack) Iran's nuclear facilities (missiles and aircraft). Unless provoked though, he will hold off on any actual attack until after the November elections. GWB knows that a sudden jump in oil prices would likely soften the GOP's midterm election chances and he won't go further than bluster and intimidation ... in October, at least. The Foley Affair kind of shook things up for the possibility of a real October Surprise, I believe. [The big "what if" in all of this is a man with the first name, "Mahmoud"!]

Guru Mediawingnuts has spoken!