Can we? I was in Riyadh when more than just a couple of scud warheads landed downtown!

For two days now, I have been hearing reports that Lt. General Henry "Trey" Obering gave assurances that the North Korean missiles posed no immediate threat. He was likely referring to his confidence in either the Airborne Laser (ABL) program -- which I thought was some time (years!) away, and caused us to pull out of the ABM treaty -- or (more likely) the sea-based AEGIS which has been vastly upgraded and (I believe) had some successful test only recently -- something like 75% intercepts, but I don't have the classified results.

Having spent my first seven years after leaving the USAF (as an SES-IV scientist) in Riyadh working with the Royal Saudi Air Force, I had the pleasure [sic] of watching the fireworks outside my villa when our Patriot System bravely defended us against Saddam's missiles. It was colorful an looked good, but truth be known, every warhead (to my knowledge) reached Riyadh's downtown area -- a fact that wasn't in the press until shortly before I left Riyadh in 1996 to take a professorial job in the United Arab Emirates (Dubai).

Before I left Riyadh, I took one last ride across the "skyway" (as we called it) over much of the downtown area. To my surprise, the damage inflicted by the scuds during the Gulf War was still left untouched -- destroyed apartment buildings and what appeared to be smaller buildings (possibly garages) with only one or two walls standing -- and even cars sitting with their unbroken windows lying on all four sides caused by the overpressure from the exploding warheads.

Of course, the fireworks that I was watching was largely the Patriot missiles striking the canisters that had already detached from the warheads that they carried all the way from Iraq. Our Patriots were generally successful in finding targets, but at that time, could not differentiate between the detached warheads and the Scud "canisters" that carried them across the desert.

From what I have since learned, that problem has been corrected and other significant upgrades have been made, but the details in Aviation Week and Space technology, although quite good in many cases, are sometimes lacking and I no longer have access to classified information, of course.

Here's hoping ...

Oh yes, I was heartened by the fact that North Korea's one long range missile failed in its first test, but then again, I wonder how our ABM system will work under realistic (like "real!!) conditions. Although I am rapidly becoming a "pacifist" (in spirit), I would have no qualms about President Bush deciding to take out North Korea's launchers and launching gear (preemptively), if they continue to act in such a childish manner.
I have no idea why Kim Jong Il is acting so irrationally (dangerously!!), but believe that it is partly to put a wedge between the US and its allies. To some extent that is working, but if we create dust and metallic ash out of his missile launching site(s), he might think twice before embarking on such foolishness in the near future. Then again, Kim Jong Il could just be insane, in which case we (and the South Koreans -- yes, I spent about five years there too!) might have to take into account the possibility that North Korea's nuclear capability is usable.

Yeesh! In this growing crisis/situation with North Korea, I have a lot of empathy with Mr. Bush as he has to make the tough decisions in the weeks and months ahead.
If only we didn't have that stupid war/occupation in Iraq tying up so much of our military capability!

But whatever it takes, Mr. Bush ... do it smartly and with the advice of your commanders on the ground (and, in this case, in the air ... and yes, space!)