Thursday, October 29, 2009

Recession is over? Then why is full-time employment still looking like it's somewhere wa-a-a-ay down there while I'm still in a free fall?


Those are my feet at the bottom of the cartoon above as the recession "ends" rather undramatically on October 29--exactly eighty years to the day from that infamous day when the Great Depression began--and now that same Wall Street says we're "out of it" on the basis of GDP growth of 3.5% and Commodities numbers 50% higher than their lows last winter. They (Wall Street tycoons and Government economists) seem to be in a parallel (inaccessible) dimension to those of us who fell through the bottom some time ago.


From a variety of sources, I've read and heard that the Commerce Department says GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent last quarter, the first positive quarterly growth in a year, and the largest quarterly advance since the third quarter of 2007.

Wow!!!

Maybe there is some cheer among Americans who feel warmth in their homes (I don't!) and who are back at work full-time making a livable wage (I'm not!). Seven hours of part-time teaching per week at a Community College is certainly helpful, and the answer to many prayers, but for me ... the recession ain't over--only showing signs of some help in a year or two.

"Today's numbers indicate that the tough decisions this administration made to rescue the economy from the abyss were correct."
said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke in a statement.
"We're headed in the right direction, and even though there are still too many Americans out of work and still much work to be done, without the action taken in the early days of this administration, the pain families are feeling today would be much worse."

Maybe I'm being too critical. Surely both GWB and P-BO have done some remarkable work towards bringing this recession to an end (like the TARP, the ARRA Stimulus Package--which pays my part-time salary, incidentally--and "cash for clunkers," not to mention bankrolling GM, etc.) ... but still ...

The Labor Department reported today that first time jobless claims totaled 530,00 last week, although the total number of Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits fell 148,000 to 5.8 million, the biggest one week decline since July.

The official declaration of the beginning and end of a recession has traditionally been given to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which has not raced to make any such declaration. Its Web site continues to mark the endpoint of the current recession with a question mark. (Look over in the right-most column after clicking on the NBER link.)

Two points: That total number of 5.8 million includes millions, who like me, are under-employed--and the unemployment rolls do not include those who have dropped off at the end of the 26 weeks + (for some) 13 additional weeks thanks to P-BO. I know several right here in Ocean Shores who have no chance of finding a job at this time and whose unemployment benefits have long ago petered out.

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