You need your 3-D glasses to even begin to sort out the NIE Report on Iraq (a.k.a. a 4-D Rubics Cube)

Somehow, sixteen intelligence agencies (most reporting to Bush directly or to the Pentagon) have decided that the war/occupation in Iraq isn't just a Civil War -- it's worse ... much worse!

Some of the main findings of only the declassified portion of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq (quoted from a summary of the report itself):

"(1) Growing polarization of Iraqi society, weak security forces and a weak government are driving violence and political extremism.

(2) If new plans for Iraq don't work over the coming year to 18 months, security in Iraq will continue to deteriorate as in the second half of 2006.

(3) Even if the violence lessens, Iraqi leaders will be hard-pressed to stabilize the country by mid-2008.

(4) Iraq faces "daunting" challenges driven by Shiite insecurity after years of Sunni domination, Sunni unwillingness to accept minority status, divided leaders who can't control the groups they represent, a Kurdish movement toward autonomy, an ineffective Iraqi army, extremist groups inside and outside Iraq and problems with refugees.

(5) The term "civil war" accurately describes key aspects of the conflict in Iraq but doesn't encompass all of its complexities. [better stated: It's worse than a Civil War!]

(6) American and international forces play a key role in the country, and the Iraqi army probably wouldn't survive a rapid U.S. withdrawal.

(7) Political developments — particularly Sunni acceptance of the current government, concessions from the Shiites and the Kurds, and efforts to reduce violence in neighborhoods — could help calm the conflict. Having stronger Iraqi leaders would help this to happen.

(8) Iraq's neighbors have some influence in the country and in some cases have intensified the conflict, but they don't play a major role because the sectarian divisions are firmly entrenched and driven by internal political forces.

(9) Other Sunni Arab regimes in the region are reluctant to support the Shiite-dominated Baghdad government and are considering supporting Sunni groups in Iraq. Turkey wants a stable Iraq to keep a Turkish Kurdish terrorist group from finding safe haven in northern Iraq.

(10) The security situation in Iraq could take a sharp turn for the worse if there is a political crisis such as sustained mass killings, a high-profile assassination or complete Sunni withdrawal from the government. If that happens, one of three scenarios might emerge: The central government could disintegrate and lead to a de facto partition of Iraq along sectarian lines, resulting in protracted violence; a Shiite strongman could emerge, or an anarchic pattern of local control could arise, leading to chaos and extreme violence."

Someone remarked that the Iraq War was like "chess compared to checkers." My take on reading the above is that it is like four-dimensional chess with some probability thrown in.

Even my brother in Connecticut would have a hard time untangling this one. The scene of Will Smith in "Pursuit of Happyness" (yes, "happyness" is spelled with a "y") solving the Rubics Cube in only a few minutes suggests that he (or Chris Gardner, the person whom he played) should be hired by the White House to get to work on the Iraq mess.