Saturday, December 16, 2006

Whoops! Mr. Bush had better go slow in supporting the Shiite majority in Iraq ...

That's two resignations in 15 months after no change in 22 years. I'd say that when Vice president Cheney was summoned to Riyadh last month, it was for a chewing out akin to the stoning of an unfaithful Saudi wife. (It might also have been the real reason behind Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld's ouster from the pentagon too, come to think of it ...)

I remember only too well the prediction made by one of my colleagues in the Royal Saudi Air Force (a captain at the time) that when (as he incorrectly predicted) President Clinton decided to be a "hero" and take out Saddam Hussein and then establish "Democracy" in a country where the Sunnis were in the minority ... that the whole "balance of religious tolerance" (his words, not mine) would fall apart. Of course, he was wrong about President Clinton, but then who could have guessed that the worst president in the history of the US would come along after Clinton and fulfill the strange (crazy sounding to me at the time) prophesy.Prince Turki al Faisal (photo top left) who headed Saudi Arabia's foreign intelligence service for 24 years before taking the post of Ambassador to the United States -- a post vacated by Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz (photo on the right) only 15 months ago after he held that job for 22 years -- resigned that lush post himself suddenly early last week (on Monday).

I spent nearly a decade in Saudi Arabia before returning to the upper northwest corner of the US in 1998 and have been watching the events of the past two years, in particular, with keen interest. It was becoming clearer and clearer to me that President Bush couldn't quite make up his mind which side in the Sunni-Shiite conflict (a.k.a. "the Iraqi Civil War") we should be supporting.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, is an avid (meaning really avid -- he was born in Mecca, for the love of Allah!) Sunni who was both upset and likely embarrassed by the recent remarks coming from the White House that "victory" in Iraq meant going after the Sunni insurgents in the Sunni Triangle" ... before President Bush suddenly awakened to the realities of Middle East politics and decided only this month to really go after folks like Al Sadr (Shiite) and maybe even dumping the third Iraqi Prime Minister (also Shiite) with whom he (Bush) was displeased anyway as the American casualties were/are climbing.

Whew! That was close. Haliburton, Kellog, Brown and Root, Chevron and half of the millionaires in Texas were hanging out on a limb for quite a while there. But his change in allegience wasn't quite quick enough to prevent Prince Turki from saying "Ma as-salaamah and Goombye!"

[Note: the oil fields in both Iraq and (yes!) the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia are in areas largely populated by Shiites.]

It might be remembered that Prince Turki was thought to have been a "friend" to Osama bin Laden for a while and even won a judgement against a Paris magazine for accusing him of involvement in 9-11. He was also pretty pissed at Michael Moore after the release of "Fahrenheit 9-11" I personally don't think he was ever a "friend" to/of Osama bin Laden--and certainly not a part of 9-11, but merely a convenient ally and acquaintance of bin Laden ... much like many White House residents prior to Bill Clinton were with Saddam Hussein, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War.

Whether his resignation is a sign that our relationship with Saudi Arabia's Royal family is further cracking or that there might (heavens!) be a power struggle within the Saudi Royal family itself suggests that we might watch the situation in Saudi Arabia with about the same careful eye that we are watching the slim Democratic majority in the US Senate.

As of today, it seems as though nothing is stable, least of all the entire Middle East.

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