Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Seldom do I recommend a book after only watching and listening to the author being interviewed on both television an the radio ... but!

Professor Vali Nasr (left) who teaches at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPG) spent a full hour on Air America and then another on television giving what I consider to be a great "short course" on Islam -- with emphasis on the distinctions between Sunnis and Shiites. He also explained very carefully all of the reason why we should never have gone to war against Iraq ... and ultimately made that famous "regime change" that was part of the neocon strategy from the day they made George Bush our President.

Shiites (rightly or wrongly) had been marginalized in Iraq -- much as they had been marginalized in the entire Arab World before our occupation and the Israeli - Lebanon War of last month. That might explain why Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen, the UAE and dozens of other Islamic countries think we are out of our friggen' minds.

Indeed, I had thought I really understood Shia and Sunnis, but then Nasr's interviews set everything I thought I knew right on its head. He was born in Iran and is obviously one of the most learned Islamic scholars alive. Of most importance are the "unintended consequences" of a war that Bush's minders believed would stabilize the Middle East under Democracy ... and with Iraq's (and, in time, Iran's) oil safely in the control of US oilmen.

He focused very heavily on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and never again will I look on him as simply a "second in command" to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is Iran's "Supreme Leader." He (Ahmadinejad) is clever, devious and, even worse, apocalyptic in every sense -- almost as apocalyptic as are the Evangelical Christians whose votes the neocons count on to keep them in power long enough to take down Iran, but with less trouble than Iraq has been, of course. And he is a likely successor to Khamenei as "Supreme Leader."

The "holy date" of August 22 has passed, but the "days following August 22 are all around us. See them? They would normally be on your television. They are the scenes that Jon Benet Ramsey's murder case and the airplane scares/crashes have shoved aside. The ongoing exercises in Iran -- now extending to more than twenty provinces both inside and outside Iran's borders -- are the fiercest and most noticeable (except here in America where the nabbing of some polygamist in Nevada and the tortuous replaying of Katrina dominate the airwaves and our television screens) in the Islamic Republic of Iran's history.

The nations of Europe are transfixed on the maneuvers ongoing in and near Iran while the neocons have our eyes focused on everything else and anything but. And oh yes, I should mention that Israel's eyes are watching Iran, even if ours aren't.

And meanwhile, Iran continues to pump oil and develop its nuclear weapons capabilities -- a capability that Bush says will not exist when he leaves office. And Israel says it will not continue. And Ahmadinejad has said that Israel and America will soon not exist.

And all the while, Ahmadinejad has successfully stirred the ancient fury between the rather secular Sunnis (they evolved from the Prophet Muhammad's companions and stressed "getting along" with secular governments around them) and the "evangelistic" Shiites (they evolved from the Prophet Muhammad's children and blood line and believe that they will evangelize the world -- after retaking Jerusalem, of course). Iraq is only a microcosm of the larger Sunni-Shia arm-wrestling that is ongoing worldwide.

Nasr's final words in his Air America interview were, "Watch the southern provinces of Iraq! If the insurgency spreads south, your efforts to bring peace to Iraq will triple." In other words, Iran is running the show, not the Iraqi Government that we have installed, and Nasr sees an Iranian push (simply using their fellow-Shia influence) to distract our attention southward even while we have yet to "pacify" Baghdad.

Recent and ongoing events remind me of the book and movie, The Perfect Storm. [From his interviews, I would think that The Perfect Storm would be a good title for Vali Nasr's book.]

The Perfect Storm may even overwhelm our seemingly important Midterm Elections in November. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

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