Deja vu ... Sitting with Robert Fisk in Riyadh in early 1996 ...

Mission Accomplished ... whenever ... as defined by the IDF

But like GWB's famous "Mission Accomplished" from the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, this one will be short-lived, take my word for it!

Just for some orientation, the Litani River is about 20 miles from the northern border of Israel. The basic scenario isn't too different than that described to me by Robert Fisk (at that time, a writer for the Independent in Britain) when describing several serious attempts by the Israelis to establish a "buffer zone" between themselves and the rest of Lebanon whose southern provinces are literally run (and protected) by the Hezbollah. As I recall, it was around February in 1996 -- more than ten years ago. Robert: I was the "Political Advisor" to the Royal Saudi Air Force at the time and a close friend of Bill Spring's -- write if you get a chance -- either comment to this posting or write me at oldmanjoe@hotmail.com. Are you still writing for the Independent? How can I get hold of Bill Spring?

But back to the posting ...

A quick reminder: The Hezbollah, like the Hamas in Gaza, is not entirely devoted to terrorist activities. They are responsible for the continuing harassment of Israel to be sure, but are also heavily involved in police, fire (disaster relief) and medical activities -- as well as represented in the Lebanon parliament.

You know -- a thought just popped into my diseased mind: eliminating the Hezbollah is analogous to are having eliminated Saddam Hussein from his "throne" in Iraq. He was a bastard, but to stay in power, he provided a police force (horribly Brutal until after the first Gulf War), a fire department, electricity, water, etc. ... that the Iraqis can only dream about today. Obviously, he should have been removed without a massive invasion and occupation.

That said, it is still quite clear why Israel would like to set up a 20 mile wide "buffer zone " (like the DMZ between the Koreas) in this area.

That also said, it is clear why this won't be possible unless (1) that real estate is heavily manned by a UN or NATO peace-keeping force, (2) "no-fly zones" (similar to those we had in northern and southern Iraq before we decided to make a regime change anyway) and (3) substantial surveillance of all of Lebanon -- as the range of the Hezbollah's rocketry increases almost daily.

The likelihood of the Hezbollah's agreeing to disarm (again -- and they never really did actually disarm the last time in accordance with UN Resolution 1559) or being willing to comply with "new" UN demands makes Condoleezza Rice's "dance" before Kofi and the Security Council over the next week almost, but not quite, humorous.

Thus, in the paranoid minds of the Israeli leaders, it will appear to be up to the Israelis themselves to reach their own version of "mission accomplished." (Wrong!!)

To accomplish the above "mission," what will be needed is an air campaign that will destroy roads, bridges, airports and all other transportation infrastructure as well as to literally exterminate all (and I mean all -- including both Hezbollah and Lebanese military, police, paramilitary, etc.) forces between the northern border of Israel and the Litani River. Robert Fisk described this as essentially impossible without attacking large residential buildings, hospitals, schools and ... well, you get the idea.

Of course, the leaflet campaign (ongoing at this minute, I presume) will continue to get many of the Lebanese to flee northward.

The land assault, which I assume is probably also already ongoing full tilt -- and yes, is a repeat of the early 1980s -- would be devastating -- killing every living thing (men, women, children, goats ... again, you get the idea) between the Israeli Northern border and the Litani River. Like the US in Iraq, they won't worry a whole lot about such annoyances as the Geneva Conventions (to wit, Qana!) and will probably take their tactics right out of our (the US tactics in Iraq) playbook -- phosphorus burned women and children to death ... alive ... in Ramadi and Fallujah, and will likely be a weapon of choice in "built-up" areas containing "bomb shelters" [sic].

I have been trying to estimate how many civilians might be still in the large area shown in the map above, but can only guess a couple of hundred thousand!

But ... once the Israeli version of Mission Accomplished" has been achieved, it's not likely that Lebanon, Syria and Iran will stand idly by watching the waters of the Litani watering daisies and roses in Tel Aviv. Surely not the Lebanese Army!

Many "experts" believe that this will not escalate to Syrian and/or Iranian involvement (Newt Gingrich's World War III or even my own tongue-in-cheek Armageddon scenario ... incomplete as yet) ... but then Mr. Bush thought that the occupation of Iraq would be a cakewalk. And did he guess in advance that the North Koreans would use our preoccupation with Iraq to test ICBMs or that Iran would restart (probably ongoing from Day One) their nuclear weapons development?

Solution: You bet there is! It is up to Mr. Bush to get out of la-la land and demand (sanctions threatened, etc.) that the Israelis initiate a ceasefire now! He should turn a deaf ear to Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and his other minders and begin to seek help from persons like Colin Powell, Bill Clinton, Brent Scowcroft, Jimmy Carter ... and yes, his own father!

My sons and daughters (at least one of my daughters) ... and many others ... I'm sure, are sick to their stomachs from looking at pictures of burned bodies of children. So am I!!

This is not a war; it's carnage at its worst and likely to cause War Crimes Trials downstream that will involve leaders of both Israel and the US.