My brother Richard in Connecticut sees the Republicans holding the White House in 2008 .... according to some goofball book!

Yes indeed, look inside!

My brother Richard in Connecticut and I can even be reading the same book (or at least the list on page three) simultaneously over the phone and manage to disagree as to which political party will win in 2008. He says "true" to six of the thirteen "key" questions with two that are clearly "don't knows" at this time, and I saw seven--maybe eight--clear falses. What this means is that he (brother Richard in New haven) sees the Republicans winning in a close election in 2008 and I see the Democrats (yes, also close) winning.

The author of The Keys to the White House (a political historian of questionable noteworthiness whose name is Allan J. Lichtman) uses and/or used something called kernel discriminant function analysis to come up with thirteen "keys" that essentially sum up the likelihood of an incumbent party's likelihood of holding on to the White House to ... (trumpets, please) the performance of the party during the previous four or eight years.

Aside from the obvious comment that that is as obvious as our lack of success in Iraq, his "keys" are ambiguous at best. They are a little like a list of some not-so-obvious--but mildly elusive--factoids that are sure to pop up in any such perusal of every election from 1860 through 1980. That is, the book might be summed up as a short read that, in the final analysis, simply says that the campaigning is for naught--it's the manner of governance by the party in party that dictates the results of elections.

Tell that to Al Gore and the lawyers/courts that put GWB into the White House back in 2000! The real "keys" are probably in those damnable chads and our antiquated electoral College System. If I read the book correctly (and I've only really begun to read the entire book beyond about the fourth chapter), all Mr. Bush would have to do to put his party into the White House for four more years is to end the occupation in Iraq and paint Rudolf Giuliani Charismatic Chartreuse.

OWOTO, the book does seem to be an enjoyable read and just might be good for the entire world if the likes of Mr. Bush picks it up on some long cold night this winter.

Oh yes, according to my brother, the "keys" have correctly predicted the winner of every election since 1996 (at least the three since the book was written) and are likely to support my brother's view that the Republicans are a likely winner in 2008. Then again, I came up with seven "falses" to the "key" questions and that would mean a Democrat will win.

See? It's all in how you answer certain ambiguously stated questions.